Regional macro — the dispersion the national aggregate hides

The national housing cycle is a weighted average of 50 state cycles + 400+ MSAs that often run years out of phase. Eight views below decompose the national average into regional, demographic, and operational dimensions. Live FRED data where available; snapshot data (refresh quarterly) for series that aren’t on FRED — clearly labeled.

Geography · State + MSA

50 states · 25 MSAs · 4 metrics

Pick a state or MSA, see its trajectory vs US. Ranked-states bar to find your position vs peers on unemployment, HPI, employment, population.

Source: FRED state & MSA series

Regional CPI Dispersion

4 census regions + key metros

Inflation isn’t uniform — Phoenix shelter inflation is structurally different from Boston. NE/MW/S/W comparison, plus 12 metro-specific CPI.

Source: BLS via FRED · live

Build vs Buy Gap

New home median vs existing

When new construction is cheaper than existing inventory, builders win share — the relative-price signal that flips builders from underdog to share-gainer.

Source: FRED MSPNHSUS / MSPUS · live

Channel Mix by State

Pro-channel concentration proxy

State construction employment as % of total nonfarm. High-share states (FL, TX, AZ) skew Pro; low-share states (NY, CT) skew DIY. Tells you mix exposure by region.

Source: BLS QCEW via FRED · live

Net Domestic Migration

Net inflow / outflow by state

Where Americans are physically moving. The 10-year secular story is Sun Belt vs. high-tax coastal. Predicts housing demand 2-3 years before it shows up in HPI.

Source: IRS SOI · snapshot

State Demographics

Age, income, ownership

The underlying demand. Household-formation cohort (25-44) vs downsizer cohort (65+). Median income, owner-occupancy rate, household formation pace.

Source: Census ACS · snapshot

Metro Affordability

Price-to-income ratio rank

Median home price ÷ median income for top 25 MSAs. ~3 = healthy, >5 = stretched, >8 = crisis (San Francisco, NYC). Shows where buyers can actually buy.

Source: Zillow ZHVI + Census ACS · snapshot

Climate Risk + Insurance

FEMA Risk Index + insurance CPI

Insurance pricing now drives "where can people live affordably" as much as economics. Hurricane / wildfire / flood risk ranks by state, plus the homeowner-insurance CPI trend.

Source: FEMA NRI + BLS · snapshot + live