Climate risk + insurance pricing

Insurance pricing is increasingly the binding constraint on housing affordability in high-risk states. Florida and California have seen carriers exit, premiums double, and homeowner-insurance CPI run materially above headline. The FEMA National Risk Index ranks states by composite hazard exposure (hurricanes, wildfires, floods, tornadoes, earthquakes).

Snapshot data. FEMA NRI scores (2023 release). Insurance CPI is live from FRED (CUSR0000SEHE: Tenants’ & household insurance) which captures national average pricing trend; state-level insurance pricing requires NAIC data which is paid.

FEMA National Risk Index by state

Composite of expected annual loss across 18 hazards. Higher score = higher hazard exposure. Top exposure: coastal hurricane states + western wildfire states.

Homeowner insurance CPI — national trend

Live from BLS via FRED. Year-over-year change. Acceleration in this series since ~2021 reflects re-pricing of climate risk into insurance premiums.