AI Beneficiaries

A working theory of who captures the AI capex cycle. Four thematic pillars (top-down) plus two name-level views (bottom-up).

The capex flow

Hyperscaler spend → compute & power → ultimate beneficiaries. Hover any flow for $B detail.

Top-down thematic

Macro pillars driving AI capex flow.
PILLAR 1

Compute & semis

Picks and shovels. NVDA, AMD, AVGO, TSM, ASML.

—basket rev YoY
PILLAR 2

Hyperscaler capex

Customers paying for it. MSFT, GOOGL, META, AMZN.

—aggregate quarterly capex
PILLAR 3

Power & grid

Constraint nobody priced in. CEG, VST, NEE, GEV.

—US nuclear gen YoY
PILLAR 4

Adopters

Where productivity shows up. CRM, NOW, ADBE, ROK.

—software basket rev YoY

Bottom-up

Name-level scenarios and winners.
SCENARIOS

Industry Scenarios

160 companies tagged by exposure across four scenarios, as built in April 2026. Exposure tags are judgement and are not refreshed.
ARCHIVE · APRIL 2026

Top 5 (archived)

April 2026 picks kept as a dated record. Not maintained; prices and events are frozen at that date.