Siberforge — Industry Scenarios

Dated screen: built 25 April 2026, not maintained. Exposure tags, scenario narratives and figures reflect that date. Statements such as expected supply conditions "by late 2026" are April 2026 views, not current calls.

Read first. Financial figures reflect training data through ~May 2025; today is 2026-04-25. Treat company stats as order-of-magnitude anchors, not the latest reported quarter. Scenario "upside" is a directional 24-month view of stock performance vs. the S&P 500, not a price target. None of this is investment advice. The scenario logic and top picks reflect relative AI leverage, moat, and balance-sheet durability — verify any name against current filings before acting.

Scenario definitions (24-month horizon)

1. No Impact AI hype unwinds. Hyperscaler capex normalizes to pre-2023 trend (~10% growth). Frontier model ROI questioned. GenAI adoption stalls. Beneficiary multiples re-rate to long-run averages.

2. Modest Impact AI is real but slower than bulls expect. Hyperscaler capex grows 15-20%/yr. Enterprise adoption is gradual (3-5% of seats by 2027). Compute scarcity persists but eases.

3. Strong Impact AI drives broad enterprise productivity. Capex grows 25-35%/yr. Frontier compute remains supply-constrained. Power becomes the binding constraint. Software margins expand as AI replaces seats.

4. Massive Impact AGI-adjacent productivity shock. Capex doubles. Power and chips both constrained for years. AI-native software displaces incumbents. Sovereign + private demand explodes. Datacenter buildout multi-trillion.

Direct AI exposure High exposure Moderate exposure Low/indirect Confidence: = 5/5

AI Industry Scenarios

Scenario definitions (24-month horizon)