Research
Dated notes on companies and themes. Unlike the Macro and Markets sections, these are written opinions: prices, fundamentals and valuation inputs refresh weekly, the thesis text does not. Every card shows the date its note was written; notes older than 60 days are flagged.
AI beneficiaries
Where AI capex flows: hyperscaler spend into compute, power and adopters, with an archived April 2026 industry screen.
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Plug Power (PLUG)
P&L path to EBITDAS, quarterly cash flow since 2015, balance-sheet maturities, liquidity levers and the plant footprint.
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Archived notes
The April 2026 AI Top-5 picks, kept for the record and not maintained.
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Companies
NVIDIA (NVDA)
The AI compute monopoly at a below-market forward multiple. 19 years of EDGAR history, reverse DCF, ASIC-threat peer set.
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TSMC (TSM)
Sole enabler of leading-edge AI silicon; N2 sold out through 2026. Foundry peer set, geopolitical-discount debate.
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Micron (MU)
85% gross margins at a 6x forward P/E: cheapest large cap in tech or a cycle-top trap. 18 years of cycle history charted.
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Broadcom (AVGO)
The custom-ASIC arms dealer: $73B AI backlog, >$100B FY27 target, VMware cash flows. Custom-silicon peer set.
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Alphabet (GOOGL)
Search +17% through the AI transition, Cloud +82%, $200B capex, antitrust appeals. Cheapest of the AI mega-caps.
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Palantir (PLTR)
Rule of 40 = 155 at ~50x forward sales. The reverse DCF shows exactly what a decade of perfection costs.
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CoreWeave (CRWV)
$104B take-or-pay backlog vs ~11% cost of debt and negative FCF. Revenue-path valuation lab for the leveraged AI bet.
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Cerebras (CBRS)
Wafer-scale inference, the $10B OpenAI deal, 86% UAE revenue concentration, ~55x sales. Q2 lands Aug 12.
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Meta (META)
27% ad growth valued like a value stock; the $130-145B superintelligence capex bet took Q2 FCF to $784M.
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Microsoft (MSFT)
Azure past $100B/yr, $678B RPO, Copilot inflecting; capex accounting change muddies the cash story.
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Apple (AAPL)
A supply-capped iPhone supercycle: record demand, Gemini-powered Siri, 50% gross margins at 31x forward.
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Amazon (AMZN)
AWS reaccelerated to 37% with a $496B backlog; $220B capex and Anthropic circularity keep the debates open.
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AMD (AMD)
The chosen second source: gigawatt OpenAI/Meta/Anthropic deals vs a 63x forward multiple that assumes flawless Helios execution.
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Intel (INTC)
Politically backstopped turnaround: 18A shipping, foundry losing $2.1B/quarter, negative FCF at ~70x forward.
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Marvell (MRVL)
No. 2 custom AI silicon and optics franchise; contested Trainium sockets vs the Google inference option.
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Applied Materials (AMAT)
The broadest WFE franchise in a record AI equipment cycle, re-rated from ~20x cyclical to ~36x secular.
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Super Micro (SMCI)
Margins doubled, FY27 guided 26% above Street, 11x forward - trust in margins, customers and controls is the whole debate.
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Sandisk (SNDK)
The purest NAND supercycle bet: 84.6% gross margin, $39 quarterly EPS, ~3x forward. How long can it last?
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Tesla (TSLA)
Record deliveries, 1.4% operating margin, and a multiple priced entirely on the robotaxi/Optimus narrative. The reverse DCF is the analysis.
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Oracle (ORCL)
$638B RPO concentrated in OpenAI/Stargate, -$24B FCF, debt-funded OCI buildout at 19x the FY27 guide.
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IBM (IBM)
The 25% single-day crash, guidance cut to 4-5%, quantum-advantage claims. Post-crash value or trap.
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Caterpillar (CAT)
First $20B quarter, $72B backlog on data-center power demand, 30x forward for a cyclical.
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Chevron (CVX)
Record 4,070 MBOED, Hess synergies at 150% of target, war-premium FCF vs ~$88 Brent.
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Vistra (VST)
AWS Comanche Peak PPA, Meta PJM deals, $4B+ FCF at ~16x forward vs CEG at 25x.
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Bloom Energy (BE)
Fuel cells for AI data centers: AEP and Oracle gigawatt deals, Fremont capacity doubling, profitability inflection.
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SoFi (SOFI)
43% revenue growth, record originations, crypto re-entry - at 30x forward with a Muddy Waters overhang.
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Rivian (RIVN)
First positive gross margin, R2 beating plan, $5.8B VW bridge - against a post-credit EV demand cliff.
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Nebius (NBIS)
The profitable neocloud: +454% growth, positive EBITDA, Microsoft/Meta backlog - CRWV without the leverage.
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SpaceX (SPCX)
The largest IPO in history: Starlink at $17B+ run-rate, Starship, and a surprise AI-infrastructure capex pivot.
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IonQ (IONQ)
$80M quarter (+287%), $2B war chest, SkyWater acquisition - the least-speculative of the pure-play quantums, at 55x sales.
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D-Wave (QBTS)
Bookings +1,120% vs revenue flat at $3.1M: the annealing gap between announcements and P&L, at a $7.7B cap.
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Rigetti (RGTI)
Cepheus-1-108Q shipped, $541M cash, ~270x run-rate sales. The dilution machine runs while the roadmap executes.
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QuantumScape (QS)
Four top-10 OEMs signed, PowerCo payments capped at $75M - the licensing model priced as an option on solid-state.
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Horizon Aircraft (HOVR)
$135M cap, $78M cash, full-scale Cavorite X7 flight slipped to 2027. An option on fan-in-wing physics.
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Merlin (MRLN)
USSOCOM C-130J prime IDIQ vs $1M quarterly revenue - autonomous flight software post-SPAC, down 75% from the high.
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Tech Select SPDR (XLK)
NVDA/AAPL/MSFT at 37% of the fund, 0.08% ER. The capped tech-sector default, +16% YTD.
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MSCI South Korea (EWY)
SK Hynix + Samsung = 47% of assets: the memory supercycle as a country fund, +65% YTD.
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Plug Power (PLUG)
The original deep dive: quarterly cash flow from EDGAR XBRL, P&L turnaround, balance-sheet health, liquidity, restatements preserved.
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Coverage complete
All 37 requested names plus PLUG are live. Suggest additions: pavkarab4@gmail.com. Data refreshes weekly via pipeline; research pages carry their as-of date - ask for a refresh after earnings.
Methodology
- Fundamentals: SEC EDGAR XBRL companyfacts. Annual history from 10-K filings (up to ~19 years); standalone quarters rebuilt by differencing YTD 10-Q filings; restatements resolved to the latest filing vintage. Yahoo Finance fills recent quarters, foreign filers, and market data.
- Valuation lab: reverse DCF (what growth is priced in), scenario DCF with fading growth, and a revenue-path mode for pre-FCF names. Presets tie to the written bear/base/bull scenarios; every input is draggable.
- Peer comps: live multiples for a hand-picked peer group per name, refreshed with the same pipeline, USD-normalized.
- Research layer: thesis, moat, risks, catalysts, and what's-priced-in, written per name with dated sources. Each page shows its as-of date — ask for a refresh after earnings.