What moved, measured against its own history
Reading the data…
1. Biggest surprises in the latest prints
For each series, the latest change is compared with the typical size of its changes over the prior 10 years (a z-score). |z| ≥ 2 is a move seen roughly one print in twenty. Consensus forecasts are not freely available, so this measures surprise against history, not against economists.
At the edge of their 20-year range
Due in the next 14 days
2. Markets over the past week
Five trading days, total return for ETFs; basis-point change for yields and spreads.
Methodology & sources
Surprise. z = (latest change − mean change) / standard deviation of changes, over the 10 years before the latest print. Changes are taken on the transformed series shown (level, or year-over-year rate). "New" marks series whose data changed in the snapshot within the last 8 days.
Range. Percentile of the latest value within its own trailing 20 years.
Sources. FRED snapshot; release dates from FRED's release calendar; market data from Yahoo Finance daily closes.