Macro · Regime & base rates

Growth × inflation regime, and what historically came next

Regime inputs: industrial production, payrolls, real retail sales, core CPI (6-month annualized, robust z vs 10 years). Summary of the whole cycle: State of the Cycle.
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Regime — trajectory & what came next

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Trajectory · last 24 months

Each dot is one month. Newest = brightest. Boundary crossings are the actionable signal.

Forward horizon
Returns
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