Macro regimes are an averaging story. This page is bottom-up: spending power, balance-sheet stress, income trajectory, and household credit health. Each chart isolates one mechanism so you can see whether the consumer is accelerating, decelerating, or breaking. Related: regime view, cycle position, inflation persistence.
The takeaway from all three signals below, distilled. Detail sections follow.
Three layers: income (real disposable), cushion (savings rate + debt service ratio), stress (credit-card delinquency). Consumption is ~70% of US GDP. When real wages turn negative or delinquencies spike, the consumer-led cycle is rolling over — usually 2–3 quarters before it shows up in retail.
Does the consumer have more or less to spend in real terms? Real disposable income and real wages tell the story. When both are positive, spending power is rising; when both turn negative, consumers either cut spending or draw down savings.
Are consumers stretching, paying down, or breaking? Revolving credit growth, delinquency rates, and debt service ratio reveal whether borrowing is accelerating, stabilizing, or seizing up at the margin.