Transmission network: every node is a macro indicator from FRED, every edge is a 60-month rolling correlation between two YoY-transformed (or level) series. Edge color encodes sign (green > 0, red < 0) and width encodes magnitude. Arrows appear when peak cross-correlation has a non-zero lag of at least 2 months and agrees in sign with the rolling estimate. Click a node to drill into the Indicator Library; click an edge to open the pair in the Pair Explorer.
Edges measure the trailing-window Pearson correlation on monthly observations. Series in levels (rates, spreads, %) stay in levels; index series (CPI, GDP, IP, S&P, etc.) are YoY-transformed. Arrows show peak cross-correlation lag in [-12, +12] months — the leader is upstream of the arrow. Lag arrows are suppressed when the peak's sign disagrees with the rolling-window sign (typically a regime artifact).
Nodes ringed in amber are part of the live 5-signal recession composite:
Sahm Indicator, 10Y-3M Curve, HY OAS, UNRATE 6mo Δ, NFP 3mo avg.
Triggered signals turn red. The bar at the top mirrors the landing-page composite and is computed
from the same series via recession-core.js.