Every housing-cycle indicator the public datasets give you, woven into a single decision-relevant view. Permits lead starts; starts lead completions; completions lead inventory; inventory determines pricing power; pricing × rates determines affordability; affordability determines turnover; turnover feeds back into permits. The composite score above synthesizes 20 series into one cycle-position read.
The takeaway from all five signals below, distilled. Detail sections follow.
The cycle flows from permits (intent) to starts (actual breaking-ground) to completions (supply hitting the market) to sales (absorption). Permits lead starts by 1–2 months; completions lag starts by 6–9 months. Single-family and multi-family run different cycles — SF tracks owner-occupier demand and rates; MF tracks rent dynamics + cap rates.
Months Supply (HOSSUPUSM673N, existing homes) is the single cleanest cycle-position read — < 4 sellers’ market, 4–6 balanced, > 6 buyers’. Pricing follows inventory with a 6–9 month lag. Rental vacancy rates separately measure the rental side — tight rentals spill into apartment-rent inflation and OER.
Affordability is a function of three things: median home price, mortgage rate, and median family income. We compute a monthly-payment index — the principal+interest payment on a 30Y fixed mortgage at the median home price — and compare it to median family income. When the payment-to-income ratio breaks above ~30%, marginal buyers exit the market and turnover collapses.
Mortgage delinquency tells you whether existing owners are under water (lags 1–2Q vs the price cycle). Construction employment is the labor-side cycle indicator — builders shed workers fast when starts slow. Lumber PPI is the input-cost layer — it leads home-improvement-retailer ticket sizes and lumber-distributor revenue. Residential construction spending is the dollar-value activity proxy.
Equities are forward-looking. XHB tracks homebuilders + supply-chain (broader); ITB is purer builder concentration. WOOD is the lumber/forestry public-equity proxy. HD/LOW/BLDR are the home-improvement and lumber-distributor names. When XHB / ITB are leading SPY, the market is pricing housing-cycle strength ahead of the fundamental data.