Bonds

Cross-asset signal, curve shape, real yields, credit spreads, vol regime, and inflation expectations. Everything that drives whether duration is a hedge or a correlated risk.

Stock-bond correlation regime

The single most decision-relevant cross-asset signal for any 60/40-style portfolio.

Yield curve

Shape today vs 3m and 12m ago. Spread tracker for the recession-leading reads.

Real yields (TIPS)

The valuation rate for risk assets. 10y real > 2% is restrictive historically.

Credit spreads

IG and HY OAS plus the HY-IG basis. Tight spreads + positive SBC = late-cycle risk-on with no diversification.

Cross-asset volatility

Equity vol (VIX) vs realized 10y yield vol. Ratio shows where risk is concentrated.

Breakeven inflation

Market-implied inflation expectations vs Fed target and survey-based measures.