Siberforge — Industry Scenarios

Read first. Financial figures reflect training data through ~May 2025; today is 2026-04-25. Treat company stats as order-of-magnitude anchors, not the latest reported quarter. Scenario "upside" is a directional 24-month view of stock performance vs. the S&P 500, not a price target. None of this is investment advice. The scenario logic and top picks reflect relative AI leverage, moat, and balance-sheet durability — verify any name against current filings before acting.

Scenario definitions (24-month horizon)

1. No Impact AI hype unwinds. Hyperscaler capex normalizes to pre-2023 trend (~10% growth). Frontier model ROI questioned. GenAI adoption stalls. Beneficiary multiples re-rate to long-run averages.

2. Modest Impact AI is real but slower than bulls expect. Hyperscaler capex grows 15-20%/yr. Enterprise adoption is gradual (3-5% of seats by 2027). Compute scarcity persists but eases.

3. Strong Impact AI drives broad enterprise productivity. Capex grows 25-35%/yr. Frontier compute remains supply-constrained. Power becomes the binding constraint. Software margins expand as AI replaces seats.

4. Massive Impact AGI-adjacent productivity shock. Capex doubles. Power and chips both constrained for years. AI-native software displaces incumbents. Sovereign + private demand explodes. Datacenter buildout multi-trillion.

Direct AI exposure High exposure Moderate exposure Low/indirect Confidence: = 5/5