Power & grid
The constraint nobody priced in. Data center power demand is colliding with a flat grid. Track generation mix, nuclear restarts, and the names that capture the build-out.
Where it standsUS generation mix is shifting: nuclear stable around 18-19% of total, gas growing to ~42%, renewables to ~22%. AI data center load is forecast to add 60-100 TWh annually by 2027 — meaningful vs total US generation of ~4,200 TWh.
What it meansThe marginal generator added for AI loads is gas in the near term and nuclear over 2027+. Restarts (Three Mile Island, Palisades) plus new SMR projects are the supply-side response.
Why it mattersPower is the binding constraint on AI capex. Hyperscalers are signing 20-year PPAs at premium prices to secure supply. The names with deliverable, low-carbon baseload have pricing power.
ActionOverweight CEG (nuclear, restart optionality), VST (gas + nuclear blend), GEV (gas turbines, the only short-cycle option). Avoid pure utilities without AI exposure. Watch FERC rulings on co-located behind-the-meter loads.
US generation by source
ActionCoal continues secular decline; gas and renewables absorb the gap; nuclear flat (constraint until restarts kick in 2026-27).
Nuclear vs renewables YoY growth
ActionNuclear growth has been roughly zero since 2021 — the binding constraint. Watch for inflection in 2026 as Three Mile Island restart comes online.
Industrial vs residential electricity prices
ActionIndustrial price spreads tighter when grid is constrained; data centers paying industrial rate. The gap is a forward indicator of grid stress.
Names in this pillar
Click any tile to drill down.
Watch items
- Three Mile Island restart timeline (Constellation/Microsoft deal)
- Palisades restart approval (Holtec)
- GEV gas turbine backlog (book-to-bill)
- FERC rulings on hyperscaler co-located loads (the Talen/Amazon precedent)
- New SMR project announcements (NuScale, X-Energy, TerraPower)
Data: EIA Open Data API v2 via /api/eia.js (generation, prices); Yahoo daily closes (basket sparklines). Power demand projections are paywalled (LBNL, IEA) — references in the Watch items only, not chart data.