Hyperscaler capex
MSFT, GOOGL, META, AMZN — the customers paying for it all. Quarterly capex prints, intensity, and the AI-attributable share.
Where it standsAggregate hyperscaler capex hit a record approximately $99B in Q3'25, +56% YoY. AMZN leads the pack at $27.5B; META rose to fourth at $19.0B but capex intensity is highest in the group.
What it meansAll four are committed for at least the next 4 quarters. AI-attributable share has crossed 50% across the group; this is now the dominant driver of capital allocation.
Why it mattersHyperscaler capex feeds directly into the Compute pillar via component orders, and into the Power pillar via data-center construction and PPA contracts. Slowing here cascades immediately.
ActionStay long the customers (this is where the spending discipline shows up); watch AMZN guide changes most carefully — they are the marginal capex setter at the high end. Reduce conviction if any two of the four guide capex flat or down.
Capex rank by quarter
ActionAMZN consistently #1; GOOGL has surged from #4 to #2 over 4 quarters as their TPU + Gemini buildout kicked in. META's late surge to #4 reflects Reality Labs + Llama capacity push. Watch for any reordering.
Capex intensity heatmap
ActionMETA has the highest intensity at 35-40%; the bull case is high IRR on AI infra, the bear is over-spending without revenue follow-through. AMZN's intensity is lower because AWS revenue base is enormous.
AI-attributable capex share over time
ActionAI share crossed 50% in Q1'25 and is on track for ~60% by year-end. The fade vs structural-share question is now the dominant valuation debate for these names.
Names in this pillar
Click any tile to drill down.
Watch items
- Quarterly capex guides at earnings — flat or down guide = pillar-wide reduce
- AI-attributable revenue disclosures (Azure AI growth, GCP AI growth, Reality Labs AI revenue)
- New OpenAI / Anthropic / xAI deals announcing capacity commits
- Cloud-segment growth rates (deceleration alongside flat capex = ROIC concern)
Data: Finnhub financials_reported (revenue), Yahoo daily closes (basket sparklines), aggregated capex from /api/edgar.js (hyperscaler companyfacts XBRL). Pre-disclosure values for any quarter not yet filed are hardcoded estimates.