Adopters & second derivatives
Where AI productivity actually shows up — software, services, industrial automation. The names that monetize AI without paying for the picks-and-shovels.
Where it standsSoftware basket revenue growth has stabilized around +12-15% YoY across CRM/NOW/ADBE/PANW. AI-attributable revenue disclosures remain inconsistent; CRM and ADBE provide the clearest splits.
What it meansAdopters are still in the 'land and expand' phase. The capex cycle hasn't fully translated to enterprise productivity yet — output-per-hour data shows modest acceleration but nothing like the 1990s tech-led boom.
Why it mattersIf AI doesn't show up in productivity within 2-3 years, the entire capex justification weakens. This pillar is where the ROIC of the cycle becomes visible.
ActionSelectively long CRM (Einstein), NOW (industrial workflow AI), ADBE (creative cloud); avoid laggards still pricing legacy SaaS without AI angle. Watch enterprise software DBNRR for the leading signal — when it reaccelerates, AI is monetizing.
Software basket revenue YoY
ActionConvergence around +12-15% suggests AI tailwind is broadly priced in but not yet differentiating. Watch divergence: a name pulling above the basket means AI is monetizing for them specifically.
Output per hour vs software capex
ActionProductivity inflection has lagged the capex inflection. The gap is the open question: does productivity catch up, or is the capex cycle a bubble?
Margin expansion in adopter basket
ActionMargin expansion is the bull case — software adopters are deploying AI to compress costs faster than they raise prices. Names below zero (ACN, ROK) are warning signs.
Names in this pillar
Click any tile to drill down.
Watch items
- Quarterly AI-attributable revenue disclosures (CRM Einstein, ADBE Firefly)
- Enterprise software DBNRR (target: reacceleration above 115%)
- ROK and EMR backlog growth (industrial automation lagging signal)
- Productivity prints (BLS quarterly nonfarm productivity)
Data: Finnhub financials_reported (basket revenue), FRED OPHNFB (productivity), Yahoo daily closes (basket sparklines). Software capex is an aggregate hardcoded estimate; will be sourced from /api/edgar.js in v2.